Global Trade's New Direction: İPUAM Assesses the First Half of 2026 and Türkiye's Position

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Gül Yılmaz, Director of the Economic Policies Application and Research Center (İPUAM), assessed the outlook for global trade in the first half of 2026 and Türkiye's position in global trade.

According to the İPUAM information note titled "The New Direction of Global Trade: The First Half of 2026 and Türkiye in Light of UNCTAD Data," prepared on the basis of the latest data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global trade expanded by approximately USD 2 trillion in the first half of 2026. Global merchandise trade rose by 12.5 percent to reach USD 13.7 trillion, while trade in services grew by 10.5 percent.

The assessment highlighted that the centre of gravity of global trade is shifting towards digital and technology-intensive products. Increases in trade in critical minerals, semiconductors, batteries, ICT products and electric vehicles indicate that global trade is being reshaped around artificial intelligence, chip and battery technologies.

A Nearshoring Opportunity for Türkiye

İPUAM's assessment emphasised that the renewed momentum of nearshoring in global trade presents a significant opportunity for Türkiye. It noted that Türkiye's strategic and geographical position could provide an advantage in this process, but that producer costs must be kept at competitive levels in order to seize this opportunity.

The note stated that Türkiye's exports increased by 3.6 percent in the first half of 2026, reaching USD 161.6 billion in the January–July period, while drawing attention to the fact that the share of high-technology products in manufacturing exports remained at 3.5 percent.

The İPUAM assessment underlined that strengthening R&D and innovation capacity, supporting technology-intensive production and maintaining price competitiveness are essential for Türkiye to strengthen its position in global trade.

The İPUAM information note was prepared based on the current economic assessments presented live by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ebru Gül Yılmaz on the Küresel Bakış (Global Outlook) programme on EKOTÜRK TV.

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